Will the market run out of painters, and should we be worried?

Labour shortage is one of the major challenges the European professional paint industry is facing. Retirement and the inflow of new generations of painters are important factors in the capacity available to professional paint companies.

Let’s say you’re in charge of a straightforward interior refresh. The client’s on board, the budget’s approved, you’ve got materials ordered. All you need now is someone to apply the paint. The first call is booked out six weeks. The next one might be able to squeeze you in, but it’ll cost extra. The third one simply isn’t taking new clients for the time being.

The research below brings together the 2022 and 2024 workforce findings, with the survey years identified separately.

That is why we have been monitoring labour shortages for many years in USP Marketing Consultancy’s Painter Insight Monitor, which covers professional painters in 11 major European markets. According to the findings of the 2022 report, an even larger percentage of the 2200 interviewed painters is expecting to be affected by labour shortages.

More European painters perceived shortages in 2022

Three quarters of European painters stated that there are shortages of skilled painters in their country in 2022, a major rise from the 64-65% of the previous two years. As in previous years, shortages seem most pressing in Germany and the Netherlands, where 90% of painters see labour shortages in their sector.

In most other countries, perception of shortages increased significantly, and the most dramatic growth is seen in Spain. In 2021, Spanish painters were least affected, with only 45% reporting that there were shortages of skilled painters. In 2022, that percentage exploded to a whopping 69%. In Denmark, perceived shortages rose from 56% in 2020 to 85% in 2022.

The later shortage findings

In the 2024 findings, over 89% of painters in the Netherlands reported a shortage of skilled labor. Spain wasn’t far behind at 84.6%. Even in France – an apparently less-impacted market – 43.5% felt the strain. These figures describe the share reporting shortages, not the size of the missing workforce.

Are European painters getting younger?

In the 2022 research, the baby boomer generation represented about a quarter of surveyed painters. The share under 35 had fallen:

The youngest generation of painters, those under 35 years of age, decreased from 10% in 2020 to merely 7% of painters in 2022.

The demographic findings discussed in December 2024 described a changing generational mix:

While the share of Gen-Y is increasing, this does not by itself establish that more are entering the profession; a generational transition also changes the overall makeup. Baby boomers – who still make up about 18% of the workforce – are gradually retiring, and this outflow is reshaping the overall profile of European painters. The largest group of workers (some 46%) consists of Gen-X.

A change in percentage shares alone does not establish the absolute number of new entrants or the total number of available painters.

For companies relying on skilled painters, it’s time to focus on attracting new talent and investing in sustainable workforce solutions. The future of Europe’s painting industry may be evolving, and recruitment needs to be considered alongside retirement.

Workloads and the opportunity to save painters time

More than half of the European painters expected their workload to increase in 2022. That was a workload expectation for 2022, rather than a current demand forecast.

For manufacturers of paint and paint-related products, there is an opportunity to help and alleviate the situation of painters. This can be any solution that saves time and improves efficiency on the paint jobs themselves or on other jobs that occupy the painter, like the search for information on products.

In relation to the media orientation of professional painters, which was the theme topic of the 2022 Painter Insight Monitor, manufacturers could help save time and improve efficiency by providing instruction videos and easy-to-find online product information and product sheets, for instance. For an overview of trends and opportunities in 11 European markets, USP Marketing Consultancy’s 2022 Painter Insight Monitor covers those findings.

Innovation and the people doing the work

If labour shortages persist, what can be done? Innovation has to lead the way. In construction, there are plenty of avenues for innovation; think modular building, automation or robotics.

So, where is the opportunity? It’s in product development and smart innovation. It’s in making tools, materials and systems that reduce the need for skilled labor. It’s in prefab, training, digital platforms, spray-on, upskilling, automation…

Professional painters, general contractors, handymen and homeowners doing their own work have different experience and support needs. Broader home-improvement findings about DIY and DIFM should not be treated as a direct measure of professional painting demand.

There’s no silver bullet, but the ask isn’t too complicated either. The way forward has to do with changing how we work: smarter products, easier application, broader user bases and realistic expectations about who will do the work and how.