Market Size Research for Installation

Association data covers members’ shipments, not installations, and membership coverage varies by country. Shipments include inventory build-up at wholesalers, which matters in volatile categories: post-Covid destocking made shipment data actively misleading for two years in several HVAC categories. Primary research with installers measures what was actually fitted, defined by your exact product category, with brand share and channel splits that association data never provides.

We use a bottom-up approach. We survey a representative sample of installers and ask about their actual installation volumes in the past 12 months by product category and brand. We gross up to market level using active installer population data from national trade registries, adjusted for company size distribution and category activity. We cross-validate against subsidy statistics, association data, and customs figures, and document where they align and where they diverge.

Sample size depends on output granularity. For a single-country study requiring national estimates by product category, 100-200 installer interviews is typically sufficient. For multi-country studies or studies requiring regional breakdowns, 200-300 interviews per country may be needed. We provide confidence intervals on all estimates rather than single-point figures, and we recommend the minimum sample that makes the outputs statistically defensible for your use case.

Yes, and these categories are where bottom-up sizing earns its keep. We capture current installation run-rates directly from installers, combine them with the subsidy and regulatory calendar, and model forward scenarios explicitly. For categories this dynamic we often recommend a two-wave design, so the second wave validates the trajectory rather than leaving you with a single snapshot of a moving target.

Yes. Many installation clients run annual sizing waves to track share movement and validate the effect of product launches or channel changes. We maintain consistent methodology between waves so trend lines are valid, and we flag any changes in market structure that affect comparability.

By phone, at times that work for them: early mornings, end of day, and by appointment. Our interviewers conduct installer interviews year-round across Europe and know how to complete a 20-minute volume interview with a tradesperson. We do not substitute with online panels for volume estimation. Panel data quality for professional volume reporting is not adequate, and installer panel coverage is thin in every European market.

Yes, and we have run installation studies specifically for this purpose, including a 300+ interview HVAC study supporting an acquisition decision in Southeast Europe. For M&A contexts we provide a full methodology appendix documenting sample design, weighting, validation, and confidence intervals, structured to withstand scrutiny from a financial or legal team. We provide point estimates and ranges, not single figures presented without margin of error.