Market Size Research for Installation
Installation markets are hard to size from a desk. Published figures track manufacturer shipments, not what HVAC installers, plumbers, and electricians actually fit. Heat pump volumes, press fitting adoption, EV charger installations, panel building activity: none of it shows up reliably in trade statistics. We quantify these markets from the ground up, measuring real installation volumes, replacement cycles, and channel splits directly from the professionals doing the work. Whether you need a defensible TAM for heat pumps ahead of a capacity investment, brand share in cable management for a competitive review, or addressable volume data to support an acquisition, we run primary phone research with installers, M&E engineers, and wholesalers to produce figures you can put in front of a board. No extrapolation from trade reports.
30+
Years researching installation markets exclusively
20+
Countries with CATI fieldwork among installers and wholesalers
Bottom-up
Installer volumes x active installer population x channel split, validated against trade data
2
syndicated monitors European Mechanical and Electrical Installation Monitors provide calibration data for volume estimates
What We Measure
TOTAL MARKET SIZE
Total Addressable Market (TAM): in volume and value, defined by your specific product category. For heat pumps that means air-to-water vs. air-to-air vs. ground source, not a generic heating category. For electrical it means the specific product group: wiring devices, cable management, enclosures, EV charging. Served Addressable Market (SAM): the portion of TAM reachable given your product format, certification profile, price position, and wholesale coverage. A heat pump brand without monoblock units cannot serve the monoblock segment, and the SAM should say so. Market size by installation context: residential new build, residential replacement, commercial new build, commercial retrofit, industrial. Replacement dominates most installation categories, and replacement behavior follows different rules from new build specification. Market size by region: national totals broken into territories where your sales organization needs them.
MARKET SHARE
Volume and value share by brand: actual fitted volumes reported by installers over the past 12 months, not stated preference. An installer who says they prefer your brand but fitted a competitor on 70 percent of jobs counts as 30 percent share, and behavioral measurement captures that. Share by distribution channel: specialist HVAC or electrical wholesaler, generalist merchant, direct from manufacturer, online trade platforms. Your share at the wholesale counter often differs sharply from your share of what gets installed. Share by installer segment: heating specialists vs. general plumbing firms, panel builders vs. domestic electricians, small one-van businesses vs. larger contracting companies. Volume concentration differs by category and country. Year-on-year share movement: two-wave designs that show whether you are gaining or losing fitted volume, and against whom.
SEGMENT SIZING
Volume by product category: for HVAC, gas boilers vs. heat pumps vs. hybrids, and within heat pumps the split by type and capacity band. For plumbing, press fittings vs. compression vs. solder, plastic vs. copper. For electrical, consumer units, cable management systems, wiring devices, EV charge points by power class. Volume by replacement trigger: like-for-like replacement vs. system upgrade vs. fuel switch. In circulator pumps and boilers, the replacement decision path determines which brands are even considered, so each path is sized separately. Volume by decision route: installer-selected vs. engineer-specified vs. homeowner-requested. Smart thermostats and visible products carry homeowner influence that hidden components do not.
FORECASTING
3-5 year volume and value projections combining installer forward intentions with construction output data and energy policy timelines. Regulatory and subsidy scenario modelling: heat pump subsidy schemes, gas boiler phase-out dates, F-gas refrigerant restrictions, ErP efficiency standards, EV charging mandates in building codes. Installation demand is policy-driven to a degree few other sectors match, and forecasts that ignore the policy calendar are not credible. Base case and upside/downside scenarios with stated assumptions, so your finance team can adjust them.
CHANNEL ANALYSIS
Volume split between distribution routes and direction of change, including the growth of online trade platforms and direct-to-installer models. Wholesaler brand mix: which brands are gaining counter space and stock depth, measured through interviews with branch and category managers. Installer purchasing concentration: how much volume flows through a primary wholesaler relationship vs. spot purchasing, which determines whether share gains come from winning wholesalers or winning installers.
Subsectors Covered
Subsector
HVAC and Plumbing
Sizing is driven by heating technology splits (gas boiler, heat pump, hybrid), the replacement vs. new build ratio, and country-specific subsidy regimes. Heat pump sub-markets by type and capacity band behave independently and need separate volume models. Pipework categories require sizing by jointing technology, because press fitting adoption varies sharply between markets.
Subsector
Electrical Installation
Volume models split by product group: wiring devices, cable management, consumer units and enclosures, panel building components, EV charging, solar integration. Domestic, commercial, and industrial work follow different channel routes and need separate sizing. EV charging requires combining installer volumes with registration data because the installer base is still forming.
Subsector
Sewer and Waste Water
Sized primarily through replacement cycles of ageing infrastructure and the split between specifier-driven municipal work and contractor-driven private work. Regional variation in drainage approaches affects both product definitions and the relevant respondent base.
This is a portion of the installation subsectors we cover.
How Market Size Research Works in Installation - Example Project
A heat pump component manufacturer wants the total market for air-to-water heat pumps in Germany, the Netherlands, France, the UK, and Poland, by capacity band and by brand, before committing to a European production capacity expansion. We run quantitative CATI surveys with 150 HVAC installers per country, supplemented by 20 wholesaler interviews per country. Each installer reports units installed in the past 12 months by heat pump type and capacity band, the brands fitted, the split between new build and boiler replacement, and expected installation volumes for the coming year. Wholesalers report sell-through volumes and brand mix at branch level, which gives us a channel-side validation layer. Bottom-up calculation: average annual installation volume per installer, multiplied by the active heating installer population in each market from national trade registration data, adjusted for company size distribution and for the share of installers active in heat pumps at all. We cross-validate against national subsidy scheme statistics and trade association sales data, document the discrepancies, and explain which estimate is more reliable for each market. Output: TAM by country in units per year by capacity band, brand share by country, boiler-to-heat-pump conversion trajectory, and a 3-year volume projection under a base scenario and an accelerated scenario tied to announced subsidy changes and gas boiler phase-out dates. This is an illustrative example. Actual countries, respondent types, and methodology depend on your brief.
Target Audiences
This is a portion of the audiences we include in market sizing studies.
HVAC installers
The most accurate source of fitted volume data for heating, ventilation, and cooling products. Their individual annual volumes, grossed up to the active installer population, form the bottom-up estimate. Reached by CATI.
Plumbers
Primary volume source for water supply, drainage, hot water, and pipework categories, including jointing technology splits. Reached by CATI.
Electrical installers and panel builders
Volume data for wiring devices, cable management, enclosures, and EV charging across domestic, commercial, and industrial work. Panel builders sized separately where the category requires it. Reached by CATI.
M&E engineers
Source of specification pipeline data on commercial and industrial projects, used for share measurement in specified categories and as a forecasting input. Reached by CATI or IDI.
HVAC and electrical wholesalers
Channel-level sell-through volume and brand mix. A critical cross-validation layer given high wholesale concentration in most installation markets. Reached by CATI or IDI.
Energy companies and utilities
Increasingly relevant for sizing heat pump and EV charging markets where utility-led installation programs carry meaningful volume. Reached by CATI or IDI.
Homeowners
Used to size the demand side in categories with consumer involvement, such as room thermostats and visible heating products. Reached by online survey (CAWI).
Our Advantage
Market sizing in installation requires knowing how the trades actually work. We have researched installation markets for over 30 years. We know that one-van plumbing businesses and 50-person contracting firms need separate weighting because their volumes differ by an order of magnitude, that installer-reported heat pump intentions systematically overstate next-year volume unless corrected against subsidy capacity, and that press fitting volumes cannot be compared between Germany and France without adjusting for jointing culture. That operational knowledge is not available from a generalist agency reading the same association reports you already have.
Our methodology is bottom-up by design. We interview the people who fit the products, by phone, not via a panel. Panels in installation are not a reliable source of volume data. Phone recruitment of active installers produces materially better estimates because respondents report their own recent jobs, not guesses about the market. Our European Mechanical Installation Monitor and European Electrical Installation Monitor provide standing calibration data on volumes per installer type, which sharpens the grossing-up step in ways a one-off study cannot.
We build market sizing studies for reuse. Consistent sampling design, harmonized reporting, and documented methodology mean a five-country study in year one can be repeated in year three and produce valid trend lines. For board-level capacity decisions, investor presentations, or acquisition due diligence, that repeatability turns a single data point into a tracking asset.
Project Examples
Installation - Market Sizing (Electrical)
A quantitative market sizing study in Slovenia and Croatia measured the electrical installation market, including the fast-growing PV and HVAC-adjacent categories. CATI interviews with electrical installers produced volume estimates by product category, brand share data, and channel splits. The client used the findings to set realistic targets for a market where published data was effectively nonexistent.
SI, HR
Installation/HVAC - Market Sizing (M&A)
A study combining 300+ CATI interviews with HVAC professionals in Croatia, Serbia, and Montenegro evaluated an acquisition target's market position. The study produced market share by brand, a competitive landscape assessment, and an estimate of addressable volume for the acquiring company post-acquisition. Untapped potential was quantified at a level of detail that supported the investment committee presentation.
HR, RS, ME
Installation/HVAC - Market Assessment
A quantitative study in Belgium assessed the air-to-air heat pump market: installed volumes, installer adoption, brand landscape, and growth trajectory. CATI interviews with HVAC installers produced a bottom-up view of a category where official statistics lag actual installation activity. The client used the output to decide on market entry timing and channel strategy.
BE
Installation/HVAC - Channel Sizing (Ventilation)
A quantitative study across six countries measured the flexible ventilation ducts market among wholesalers and OEMs. The study produced channel-level volume estimates and brand mix by country, capturing a category that flows through multiple routes to market. Results gave the client a comparable six-country view of addressable volume and the dominant distribution route in each market.
BE, FR, DE, NL, NO, PL
Deliverables
- Market size report: TAM and SAM by country in volume and value, with full methodology explanation, confidence intervals, and documentation of top-down validation sources
- Brand share tables: volume and value share by brand and by country, broken out by product category, distribution channel, and installer type
- Segment sizing: volume by installation context (new build, replacement, retrofit), by product category, and by decision route, in tabular and visual format
- Channel split analysis: volume and value by distribution route, with trend direction and country-by-country variation explained, including online trade platform penetration
- Forecast model: 3-5 year volume and value projections with base case and regulatory or subsidy scenarios, stated assumptions, and sensitivity analysis on key demand drivers
- Competitive landscape summary: brand positions, estimated shares, and wholesale footprints for named competitors, formatted for competitive review presentations
- Methodology appendix: full explanation of bottom-up calculation, sample design, weighting approach, and validation against top-down sources, structured to withstand scrutiny from a CFO or M&A due diligence team
- Executive summary deck: 10-15 slide PowerPoint with the key market size figures, brand share landscape, and strategic implications, ready for a board or investment committee
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Why run primary research for market sizing when heat pump and boiler associations publish sales data?
Association data covers members’ shipments, not installations, and membership coverage varies by country. Shipments include inventory build-up at wholesalers, which matters in volatile categories: post-Covid destocking made shipment data actively misleading for two years in several HVAC categories. Primary research with installers measures what was actually fitted, defined by your exact product category, with brand share and channel splits that association data never provides.
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What is your actual methodology for calculating market size?
We use a bottom-up approach. We survey a representative sample of installers and ask about their actual installation volumes in the past 12 months by product category and brand. We gross up to market level using active installer population data from national trade registries, adjusted for company size distribution and category activity. We cross-validate against subsidy statistics, association data, and customs figures, and document where they align and where they diverge.
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What sample sizes do you use, and how precise are the outputs?
Sample size depends on output granularity. For a single-country study requiring national estimates by product category, 100-200 installer interviews is typically sufficient. For multi-country studies or studies requiring regional breakdowns, 200-300 interviews per country may be needed. We provide confidence intervals on all estimates rather than single-point figures, and we recommend the minimum sample that makes the outputs statistically defensible for your use case.
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Can you size fast-moving categories like heat pumps and EV charging where the market changes quarterly?
Yes, and these categories are where bottom-up sizing earns its keep. We capture current installation run-rates directly from installers, combine them with the subsidy and regulatory calendar, and model forward scenarios explicitly. For categories this dynamic we often recommend a two-wave design, so the second wave validates the trajectory rather than leaving you with a single snapshot of a moving target.
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Can you run market sizing as a recurring study to track share over time?
Yes. Many installation clients run annual sizing waves to track share movement and validate the effect of product launches or channel changes. We maintain consistent methodology between waves so trend lines are valid, and we flag any changes in market structure that affect comparability.
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How do you reach installers, who are in vans all day and famously hard to interview?
By phone, at times that work for them: early mornings, end of day, and by appointment. Our interviewers conduct installer interviews year-round across Europe and know how to complete a 20-minute volume interview with a tradesperson. We do not substitute with online panels for volume estimation. Panel data quality for professional volume reporting is not adequate, and installer panel coverage is thin in every European market.
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Can market sizing data be used for M&A due diligence, and how do you document the methodology?
Yes, and we have run installation studies specifically for this purpose, including a 300+ interview HVAC study supporting an acquisition decision in Southeast Europe. For M&A contexts we provide a full methodology appendix documenting sample design, weighting, validation, and confidence intervals, structured to withstand scrutiny from a financial or legal team. We provide point estimates and ranges, not single figures presented without margin of error.
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