The construction sector is stabilising, but not everywhere at the same pace

March 2020: Lockdown turning point for construction volumes

The lockdown destroyed European architects’ optimism about their order books and expected turnover development. From March 2020 on, a direct, extreme decline in construction volumes compared to the same month in the previous year was apparent, especially in Belgium, France, Italy, and the UK. This negative development continued in subsequent months. In the Netherlands and Germany, however, developments were more or less stable the entire year. And slowly but steadily, as the year progressed, construction volumes started to rise again in the hard-hit countries. In January 2021, construction volumes in most countries seemed to have recovered. Except in Germany and Poland,  construction volumes are at the level they were the year before.

Concerning the status of building permits, slow recovery expected

Looking at the increased construction volumes in most countries in the last months of 2020, the European construction sector seems to be recovering after the hit in March of that year. Most European architects are also experiencing positive developments in their order books. Be that as it may, the coronavirus pandemic has left its mark on the sector, as can be seen in the worrying state of the number of issued building permits. In many countries, fewer permits have been issued than in the same period a year earlier, both for residential and non-residential construction. Standing out is Spain, where no improvement can be seen yet. This leaves few reasons to expect a fast recovery in the sector.

Expected developments due to COVID-19

Also interesting to highlight are architects’ expectations of trends caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Architects expect big changes in the types of buildings developed over the coming years. A large share of architects expect fewer malls to be developed because consumers will more often shop online, for example. The majority also expects a decline in office buildings because more and more people will keep working from home. Demand for residential construction will remain stable in most countries, but COVID-19 will leave its mark, especially on the non-residential sector.